My views on politics, life, death, the army, and other things too miscellaneous to mention here. This is a personal blog. This blog is 100% factual.
Bill Duckwing
Poet, Author, Journalist
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Your Super-Cute Daily Terror Alert Update Will Be Forevermore:
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"There are some myths and untruths surrounding the role God plays in our daily lives. To say that religion and politics do not mix, is certainly a myth, unless you ask a liberal. Anything that affects a Christian (and voting is one of them) — enters into the religious realm. Trying to separate the two is like trying to separate oil from a glass of water, it's impossible to do. "
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Sunday, October 31, 2004
National Novel Writing Month
I'll be participating in National Novel Writing Month (NaNoWriMo) starting tomorrow. The idea is to generate 50,000 words of fiction in 30 days, which sounds both excruciating and kinda fun. Anyhoo, I think it's a good way to get my head out of this election and on to other things, as I imagine the rest of November will be a pretty slow month for politics.
If you're interested, here are a few links to catch up:
Blogging Your Novel Part 1
Blogging Your Novel Part 2
Na-No-Blog-Mo
Register Here
My own novel will appear here. I can't promise much coherence in the sequence I put the novel -I just doesn't write that way, and certainly couldn't plot out a novel like that at such a frentic pace.
Also, given the amount of time I'll be spending writing this thing, and the winding down of the Election year, I probably won't be contributing too much here next month. But I'll be posting here right on through the election, so stay tuned.
-duckwing, at 9:22 PM
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Electoral Vote Predictor
I know all of you guys have seen this before, but this is probably going to be the website I visit most frequently from now until the Election, so it should come in handy.
Also, Packers beat the Redskins. For Bush to win this election now, he's going to have to buck not only Convential Wisdom, but also the National Football League.
I wouldn't want to be in the President's shoes right now.
-duckwing, at 4:55 PM
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Saturday, October 30, 2004
Bush Wins Florida!
A video from Boom Chicago shows the possible problems with electronic voting machines this year.
-duckwing, at 7:26 PM
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My Final Guesstimate on the Kerry-Bush Tally
Saturday's a slow news day, so I'll go ahead and make my prediction. Kerry wins -51% to Bush's 47%.
As for Battleground States -Kerry carries Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennslyvania, and New Mexico. Bush probably takes Florida, and of course Colorado, Arkansas, and Missouri.
Not a huge deviation for the CW. I actually think it's going to play out pretty much as expected. Actaully, I think Kerry has a better chance taking the leaning Bush battlegrounds than Bush does, as I think GOTV will absolutely be the crucial factor in ecking out the Kerry victory.
This isn't my official endorsement, I just think the election is still Kerry's to lose, and he'd have to try very very hard to lose it with 3 days left to go.
-duckwing, at 4:35 PM
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Here's Hoping the Redskins Lose on Sunday!
It's sports superstition Friday again. According to Countdown on MSNBC, when the Redskins win the Sunday before an election, the Presidential incumbant wins. When the Skins lose, the incumbant loses. This has been the case, according to MSNBC, for the previous 17 elections. Given the Red Sox winning the World Series, I'm going to have to say that 2004 is an off-year for sports analogies, but who knows, maybe this one will hold up again this year.
The Redskins are playing Green Bay on Sunday, so I'd expect the Redskins to lose, anyway. I can't say that's a huge reassurance for me, just a notion. Though I live in DC, I'm a big Eagles fan, who play in the NFC East with the Skins, so I've got a double incentive to root for GB on Sunday. I just won't read too much into it.
-duckwing, at 1:57 AM
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Friday, October 29, 2004
October Surprise? How About This -Stop Being a Bunch of Pussies!
So we got a new Bin Laden Video, and already I've counted on both hands and a number of toes on some of the "liberal" blogs and comments that Kerry should just concede this election and save the emotional turmoil waitng for Election Day. Because we've already lost -it's over, baby, and of course the public is too stupid and emotional about 9/11 still to change horses mid-war.
Or some other stupid shit they use to allow themselves enough rope so they're not completely suicidal should Bush happen to win on November 2nd. But it's a pussy way out, and it shows a stunning lack of commitment from people who have gone through the very same four years that everyone else has, but are willing to now hedge their bets and not invest themselves emotionally in an election that has polled a dead heat for weeks now and is now just four days away.
Finally, the October Surprise, they say. Karl Rove, Bush's Brain and Mastermind Genius, finally fucked us for good this term. We cannot compete with circumstance. John Kerry is super-doomed.
We do this time and time again. When a story comes up in the news, we take the worst possible fucking spin on it, convince ourselves that that's the way it's going to be spun to the public, assume that the public is going to lap it up like dogs, and then are always very plesantly surprised when things don't take that way. Paranoia, anyone?
And I'm really fucking tired of it. Because when you spin the most negative reaction you can imagine, you're already doing and disseminating half of the work for the other side. It becomes bi-partisan. I mean, it's a free country and all, do whatever you want, but I seriously hope your readers get the message and just stop reading your pathetic views.
I've decided not to attack anyone specifically in this space regarding this, mostly due to the fact that a lot of the negativity seems to come from comments, and because a lot of the better blogs out there have already called people on this. But it's still kinda all over the place -I've already heard the meme repeated on TV, but I'm convinced the gestation period started with the blogs.
I'll finish this up with a cliche, unfortunately -this is the most important election I've ever been through, and if some of us are willing to conceed defeat four days before the election because Bin Ladin shows his ugly mug again to criticize the President, than those some of us obviously have too much of a weak stomach for politics and should graciously step out. I know I wax macho about stuff here sometimes, and it's usually meant as a joke, but this time I mean it. You're probably already fed up with the election stuff anyway, and were just waiting for the sign to step out anyway.
I'm going to be spending the weekend writing up my official endorsement for President. I promise it won't be too serious. But this election is -for me, and for so many millions who are fed up and absolutely need a change from the lies, and the absolute horror and disbelief this adminstation has put us through. Watch the Eminem video again. Get your shit together, vote, and don't spin this story for them.
-duckwing, at 10:46 PM
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Thursday, October 28, 2004
Help Me Decide on a Costume for Halloween This Year!
Quick, dudes and dudettes! The party's theme is Heaven vs. Hell, or something like that. The biggest thing about this is that you can do the Heaven thing as an angel, or you can do the Hell thing as a devil. Or you can skirt around the theme a bit and go as someone who belongs either in Heaven or in Hell. Right now, I'm debating between a few ideas, with the only criteria being that it be 1.) Super cheap, as I'm on a budget this week, and 2.) Not be too incredibly hard to explain, and 3.) Also be super duper and yes, almost incredibly cheap to produce -we're talking halos made with tin foil and white robes made with discarded bedsheets here, guys.That said, here are my ideas, so far:
1.) An Angel
This is probably the most imaginative of my ideas, so far. Ideally, I could just cut a big hole in my bedsheet and attach a coat hanger to it to affix a tin foil halo to it. Cost: $0. Unfortunately, my bed sheets are yellow, not white, which kinda gives me an even better idea. The Decadent Nicotine-Drenched Smoking Angel. He's basically on the side of good, but he chain smokes and spends his Spring Breaks in Cancun and his clothes stink. Maybe. Girls like to do the devil thing, and it's always been my position that guys that dress like angels in Heaven/Hell themed parties tend to reek of desperation. But so far, this is the cheapest, and almost the most ridiculous option, so I'll keep it in the mix.
2.) Fucking He-Man
I got this idea by thinking about those really cheap theme costumes you used to oogle over in the supermarket when you were a kid. The He-man mask and costume was fucking great. Now He-man went out of style like 20 years ago, but if I could find a costume shop or dollar store that sold this, I'd already be in Heaven. Of course, I wouldn't actually be able to fit into the costume aspect of it, but my idea was this -just wear the mask with normal casual commuter-wear. Of course, I'd accent this a bit. In addition to the He-man mask, I'd buy a super cheap blonde wig, hopefully one that was completely out of synch with the He-man Price Valiant hairstyle. I've always hated the fact that those masks always show the back of your head. Maybe a wig with a ponytail, or a perm. To that, add one of those cheap 2-dollar pirate swords with scabbard that glow in the dark a little bit. Then walk around DC like a normal guy, but every once in awhile (hopefully in a crowd) take out the pirate sword and do the "...by the power of Greyskull!" thing. The kids would freak out. Bonus points for doing it on the Metro. I initially had some problems working He-man into the theme of a Heaven/Hell party, but I figured it out. He-man was a heretic pagan, or course, who didn't believe in Jesus or God ("By the power of -Greyskull..." anyone?) So of course, he's hellbound. Maybe confined only to the first circle of hell, since it's doubtful that a pagan such as He-man was ever baptized, but I digress.
3.) President Bush
Okay, this one was easy. If only I had a blue suit, man, I'd be so set with this. I don't look a thing like G.W., though, so it might take a bit more explaining then I'm willing to do while inebriated, but I do have curly-ish hair like Bush, so it's possible. Get some grey hair dye, put on my unfortunately black suit and tie, and grab a Bush/Cheney button from the local College Republicans office to complete the attire. The fun thing about this is that I can go either way with the Heaven or Hell thing -if I'm talking to a hot but uber-Republican chick, I could be like "Oh yeah, I decided to be George Bush for the party this year because I figured if one guy on this earth is totally going to Heaven, it'd be George ..." Or if some guy is drunk and annoying the fuck out of me, I could play devil's advocate off of either side he opposes. It's certainly the most adaptable costume I've come up with so far.
4.) A Ghost
This is so weak, guys. Yeah, I know. I'm trying to forget I even came up with this one. One sheet, two eye-holes. Guys, I'm poor...but I do like the ascetics of it, in a cheap sort of way. Walking around with a sheet over your body on Halloween just screams: "Yeah, I'm retro, and yet ironic at the same time. This is so cool..." And seriously, guys, who wouldn't get a kick out of a guy with a sheet over his head? With two eyeholes cut out? Nobody, that's who. Anyway, the big question is -do ghosts go to Heaven or to Hell when they pass on? Who knows? What a fucking great ice-breaker! Sheets with a couple of holes cut out of them -a cheap but great ice breaker, where you can debate with your fellow party-goers just exactly where ghosts go in the afterlife.
5.) Cobra Commander
I had some qualms and doubts about going as Cobra Commander. The idea came to me as a kinda spin-off on the He-man idea, and I must say it raised some more practical possibilities for me that the He-man idea could not. For one thing, while I'm sure most of the cool commercial Cobra Commander costumes with the silver face mask are now long out of production, his appearance changed so many times over the decades that I managed to settle on one of them that would be both practical and cheap to emulate. I'm talking, of course, about that version of Cobra Commander where he has a hood with a couple of eyeholes cut out of it for him to see. It'd be hard to find off-hand an article of clothing with the red Cobra logo on it, but I figure I could just pull my old Whitesnake tank out of the closet, and people wouldn't heckle me too much about it. Since Cobra Commander was evil, and such a total failure at being evil, and he whined a lot, I'm sure there's an extra special place for him in Hell, which fits in with the theme of the party very well indeed. I'm not sold on any of these yet, and definitely open to suggestions. As far as I can tell, they all have their advantages and problems. Any ideas?
-duckwing, at 11:38 PM
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In Case You've Forgotten What's At Stake In This Election
Allow Eminem to remind you. Pretty powerful stuff (thanks Bartcop).
-duckwing, at 8:47 PM
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Wednesday, October 27, 2004
Absolutely the Only Movie Review You'll Ever See Here at the Apple Coda
Honest. I'm pretty sure you could give a fuck what movies I tend to like in general. And I can say positively that this is the first time I've seen any movie and thought "Hey, I could post my thoughts about this movie on the Internet!"
But I am compelled to do this to Team America -World Police, for a number of reasons:
1.) The movie generated so many positive reviews for a Trey Parker/Matt Stone film. I like South Park, sorta, and I consider Baseketball (which got absolutely horrible abysmal reviews) to be one of the most LOL funny movies I've ever seen. When I screened Baseketball my girlfriend at the time thought I was having a nervous fit or a nervous breakdown. I think she fell asleep midway through the movie.
2.) I wanted to convince myself that the reason why I was disappointed by Team America -World Police wasn't because I was a left-wing nutjob prude who has about as much a sense of humor as some bluenose asshole from Massachusettes. I'm not John Kerry. I swear to God Almighty as a Christian that nothing makes me LOL (wow, I used that twice in one post! LOL! Now Three Times! I'm on a roll!) more than asians fucking up their l's and r's when speaking English. That certainly cannot be in dispute.
The reason why I didn't enjoy Team America is because it's 1.) very politcal, and 2.) already very dated. I mean, seriously...
Holy shit! Screaming big time outside my apartment! Guess the Red Sox broke the Curse, huh! I cannot believe I just missed the last game of the World Series. Fuck! Total sweep!
Anyway. Yeah, there's some funny moments. Actually, you know, I'm a bit distracted right now, so I'll just post this. Make what you want out of Team America -I thought it blew gorillas. The best moment for me was when the Cornhusker guy says "What do you think Spotswood sees in him (Gary)?" And the chick Lisa says "I don't know, but I think I see it too..." And then the Cornhusker guy just stands there for a second with Lisa, and then a very slow close-up as he just turns his head and stares at her for a few more seconds. I have no idea why this is funny, except that it's just fucking creepy.
But the strikes on the left are not very spot-on. LOL -Michael Moore is fat, and he's double-fisting hotdogs! Christ! (although I chuckled when he suicide bombs Mount Rushmore)
Somewhere along the way, the satire loses it's focus as Team America almost become sincere protagonists in the whole thing. And it's been pointed out before -nobody pokes fun at Jerry Bruckheimer quite like Jerry Bruckheimer does (see: Armageddon, and Pearl Harbor)
That said, I'm very proud of my Red Sox.
-duckwing, at 11:26 PM
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Friday, October 22, 2004
ALCS, NLCS, and the End of the Possibility for a World Series/Election 2004 Analogy
I'm certainly not by nature a superstitious person. My world outlook tends to be grounded, unfortunately, in certain practicalities that one would tend to think of as "realism." But the truth is, y'know, sometimes I'd like to be a superstitious person. A place where some kinda karmic force does tend to augment people's good deeds and fuck with them for their bad deeds. Where taking care not to step on a crack in the sidewalk or the street does lead to something like good fortune. Even the bad superstitions -a black cat crosses your path, and you're fucked for the day. That'd be a weird game to play.
Sometimes superstitions do become a sorta weird reality when you're faced with something you cannot handle by yourself. The Washington Sniper thing that happened a couple of years ago, for example. Somehow the news got out that if you walked in a zig-zag pattern on the sidewalks, you'd be a tougher target for the nameless, faceless sniper dude(s) that were out there anywhere and everywhere. Sure enough, I caught any number of people walking down the sidewalks -zig-zagging from the curb side to the side closest to buildings, as if this would make anyone a harder target to hit if they were actually the mark on an open street.
That's a superstition, a solution guided by fear and powerlessness. And I'm sure that guides a lot of the superstitions of the past, present, and future. But Baseball is almost a superstition in itself, if you've been a Red Sox fan all your life, or even just a regular old Joe Baseball Fan. Which is a little weird. Yankees Stadium is The House That Ruth Built, and if you believe in the Yankees, you believe the Babe still walks those bleachers -scowling, spitting, putting a little hex on any stray Sox fans in their ranks. If you believe in the Yankees, there really isn't a grain of salt to take with this. You might blow it off in polite conversation, but secretly, sincerely, you believe. The Red Sox have of course lived under The Curse of the Bambino. That terrible trade of 1920 somehow encouraged the Bambino to take up with some Voodoo priests and wizards to put a halt to any possibility of the Sox winning a World Series, and so far, he hasn't forgotten nor forgiven.
Those are the big ones of Baseball. There's the medium sized ones -the Cubs have taken up the Goat Curse as a faux-serious parable to explain why their team kinda sucks decade after tormented decade. No doubt, when Steve Bartman dies his lonely ghost will join the ranks of the Major League Mythos, doomed to roam the seats of Wrigley Field, weeping openly and in eternal torment for that long gone baseball he snatched out of play. The small but significant ones -the rituals players go through with warming up or corking up their bats, tapping their shoes three times, etc. Baseball is a superstitious game, for better or for worse, mostly due to history and the kinda of the kinda of chance baseball provides to less talented underdog teams that doesn't really exist in any other sport.
And this is, of course, the really cool thing about baseball. The Red Sox, losing the first three, beat the rules of probability and chance and force a game 7, and yeah, we were like -well maybe this could still be the year, but, four games in a row is kinda tough, especially at Yankees Stadium, The House that Ruth Built, and of course the Red Sox blew the game wide open in the first two innings and never looked back.
What can I say.
The greatest ALCS ever. I won't get into the details here, as they've already been discussed at length and entered into the books. Curt Schilling, a man who has time and time again been called a man guided by his superstitions, might have a point about all of that.
The Red Sox go on to face the Cardinals in the World Series on Saturday (and trust me, it's a joy to finally be able to type that out). I guess that puts an end to the Kerry-Red Sox and Bush-Astros analogy. I'll have to miss the first game, as I'm on vacation and will be busy over the weekend, but I look forward to seeing the rest of the series when I get back. And I certainly won't forget to wear my Red Sox hat during the World Series, it seems to have been the decisive factor for the Red Sox so far.
-duckwing, at 1:01 AM
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Wednesday, October 13, 2004
The Presidential Debate Part 3
Thank God this is the last debate. As much fun as they are to watch and liveblog to, I can't say that I'm going to hear or see anything that I'm not expecting for this one, with the exception of, say, a huge blunder on Kerry or Bush's part. Liveblogging also does tend to cut into the meat of actually hearing the debate, so I cannot promise that I'll be blogging every five or ten minutes like I've done for previous debate posts (I'll actually be spending the time not blogging to catch the Red Sox-Yankees game during the periods where I get bored with the debate, but shhhh!)
Update (7:42 PM): The best strategy I've heard so far for the Kerry camp is -Bush is actually quite adept at digging his own hole by himself, but at some point, the hole recognition factor kicks in, and he does a semi-respectable job at pulling himself out of it. It's a delayed reaction, kicking in after he's already a couple of feet under, but it's there. Kerry's job is to subtley make Bush angry enough that he will forget his own self-consciousness. Tease him, jibe him, whatever. If you can make Bush take it personally, which shouldn't really be too much of a problem, Bush'll keep digging that hole and never look back.
Update (7:57 PM): You know what I was thinking about the other day? Well, I was thinking about how cool it would be to be an electoral college delegate. I mean, I'd be a Democrat of course, so that I would definitely be allowed to serve as a delegate from the District of Columbia. If it were a shoo in for Kerry, I'd probably cast my vote for Bush, just to be the first delegate in the history of DC politics to vote Republican. Wouldn't that be fantastic? "And two delegates from the District go for Kerry, and one goes for Bush! Wow, isn't that weird..." I mean, I'd probably have a lot of explaining to do, but still, I'd be worth it.
Update (8:02 PM): I keep seeing that commerical for What Makes George Tick.com on MSNBC. It's very well done for a political ad, but still, I think the poll is a little one-sided. What about if you think he does care about you, for instance? I mean, what are you susposed to click on if you, just as an example, think that Bush really does care about your feelings? I'm so fucking confused...
Update (8:24 PM): Bush will of course be expected to accent every criticism of John Kerry with the word "Liberal." Amoung the evidence will be the ranking of Kerry as the #1 most liberal senator last year in the National Journal. Of course, a balancing point is that as far as his career against other current senators goes, he ranks #11. Edwards ranks #27, which barely places him in the conservative wing of his own part (Edwards finished #4 last year). Of course, NJ based it only on 19 "critical" votes for Kerry (not sure how many Edwards). Not that ranking congressmen by political ideology based on "critical" votes isn't completely stupid in making a judgement whether to vote for them or not, but I think as far as Kerry's senate record goes, it reflects what he has portrayed himself as during the campaign -a middle of the road somewhat moderate Democrat with liberal leaning on a few issues. He's certainly not a liberal activist, and to portray him as such is simply retarded.
Update(8:46 PM): Fuck, New York is up on Boston 1-0! Given that Boston lost Game 1 of the ACLS, da Sox totally gotta get their eye on the ball! Oh, yeah, the debate...still hasn't started yet, although Tommy B and Rusty T both give props to the fact that we in the media totally shouldn't call a winnar in this debate until The America People have decided. Well, yeah, that could happen. After the debate, Chris Matthews and Co. could talk about baseball, and how since the Astros (Texas, Bush's "home" state) and the Red Sox (Boston -for Kerry) are still both playing, that the election really hasn't been decided yet. The question is, if Boston beats the Yankees, will that mean that Kerry is doomed to lose New York this year? I still don't know, it might be one of those intangibles, a metaphysical karma out there, that truly influences this election, but I'm sure we can debate that a'plenty when the election's finally over and we can start the recounts.
Update (9:08 PM): And the first question on domestic politcy from moderator Bob Schieffer is -"Can America ever be safe from terrorists?" Or something like that. That was the gist, anyway. Boo.
Update (9:19 PM): I smell blood in the water and it seems like it's coming from Bush. While Kerry's chuckling is sorta condescending, and Bush did beat Kerry up on the first question, and maybe the second, on the fiscal discipline problem, Bush is simply unable to defend against Kerry's attacks. And Kerry compares Bush to Tony Soprano, which is kinda cool when you think about it. The Cabal for Fiscal Irresponsibility!
Update (9:40 PM): Bush looks incredulous at almost everything Kerry says, no matter how pedestrian. Kerry has the smirk going on big time. Thank you split screens! But the greatest thing about this debate is that every time he finishes answering his question, he gets this grim and wink thing going on like -"Hey man, I answered a question, and that was pretty cool! I looked great!" I keep expecting him to give a thumbs up with that wink. Oh well, maybe he'll do it on the next question.
Update (9:50 PM): Bush is, honestly, starting to dominate this debate. I'm really starting to hate this split screen thing, because I think it's starting to take the focus off the issues and plans the candidate is speaking about and instead lends focus on whatever reaction shots the other candidate is making. That's part of the reason why the focus is leaning towards Bush, because I think the reason why Kerry wins debates in general is because he's better in an issue orientated debate. I think the other candidate, when he's not actually speaking, is a distracting presence, and I wish that MSNBC would at least cut to a full shot of the candidate speaking from time to time.
Update (10:04 PM): Biggest lie so far -no litmus test for Bush on Roe v. Wade. The fact that Bush wants to stock the courts with pro-life justices is pretty much accepted by everyone. Yet he equivocates on that. Bush is clearly unnerved enough about the swing voters to actually attempt to court them in this debate, which kinda opposes the pre-debate conventional wisdom. So far, I can count on less than one hand the times Bush has delievered the butter to his conservative base. Is it a change in stategy, something else, or fear?
Update (10:21 PM): Bush wants the atheist vote? Wow, now I'm completely confused. But his reasoning behind the segue from respect to the non-religious to citing his government faith initiaives is weird -"I want to court the non-religious in our country by introducing faith-based initiatives into our government!" What?
Update (10:34 PM): Closing arguments. But first, that last question -Kerry nailed that one. Very good. I hate to go with the CW, but damn, Kerry is really fucking presidential. He's done a complete 180 since the days when he's was just kinda sticking his foot in the water into Presidential politics. An incredible debate, and I have to say, and I have to say again (not again! Gooder! -10 pts. if you can guess the reference), that, while it was closer I think than the last two, Kerry really put out a stellar performance (the best, by far, so far), whilst Bush put out only an okay one. The split-screen thing I mentioned before, though, has already been mentioned on MSNBC in the post-debate analysis, so I think that is a mitigating factor in favor of Bush. Windy! A bit more in a few after I catch up on the Red Sox.
Update (10:50 PM): Well, I caught the 7th inning in the Red Sox vs. Yankees debate, and -quite frankly, it aint pretty. The Red Sox are down 0-3, but how does that figure in exactly into the last, the actual final Presidential debate this term? Well, I'm not sure exactly. I'll follow up on my previous post and say that I think Kerry put in his best performance so far, but I'll leave that open to debate over the next couple of days. And the reason, essentially, for this is that Bush wasn't a punch doll in this debate. I think the thing is this, though -if you think Bush is vastly inferior to Kerry in substance and style in debating, then you probably thought that Bush won, simply because he beat the expectations game. But if you look at them as two presidential candidates on equal standing before this debate, then I think you have to say that Kerry did seem the more Presidential. There certainly wasn't a knock-out punch. I guess that's to Bush's credit that he didn't leave his campaign open enough for one. Oh, well -here's a very politcal bear for ya to think about. Over, and out.
-duckwing, at 7:25 PM
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Friday, October 08, 2004
More of the Same -Presidential Debate Vol. 2
I'm not exactly crazy about giving up my Friday night for this, but I do it for you, good readers, so that you may bask in my enlightened glow. Bask, and enjoy it, because this is the next to last one (not counting my liveblogging election night coverage).
This debate's format might be a boon for Bush, because I think he feels more confident when he's in a crowd and can size up his audience. Despite Kerry's reputation as aloof and bloodless, I think he does well in this format as well. With that said, I don't think Bush has the advantage here. He just has a bit more of a better format that might make him seem almost completely incompetent, rather than completely.
Just caught an old clip of Mondale vs. Reagan during their debates. Mondale, throwing it right back in Reagan's face: "there you go again..." Is it just me, or was Walter Mondale the most inconceivably improbable Presidential candidate of all time? "Well, our incumbant lost to Reagan in 1980, so I'll guess we'll just have to run...The Former Incumbant's Vice President!"
I don't know...but maybe I'll get the notion tonight. Stick yo ass right here to find out.
Update (8:54 PM): Wow I guess we are a polarized nation. While Chris Matthews was talking, in the background a Bush/Cheney sign and a Kerry/Edwards sign were competing for face time. You know what would be awesome, instead of just stuff like that, a little fisticuff action amoungst the bipartisan crowd assembled around him. Then, after a bit, they get tired, and stop when they see Chris Matthews and his team of experts trying "to make sense out of all of this polarization in the electorate." And then the sudden realization -that maybe a lot of this "polarization" comes from the news itself...and then, my friends, it's open season on instant pundits. I've got my door barricaded already.
Update (9:03 PM): what is the sound of one set of hands clapping. Tune in to MSNBC to find out. Move the sound mike, goddammit!
Update(9:12 PM): "I wasn't happy when we found out he'd hadn't any weapons." (I'm not sure if that's the exact quote, but it's pretty close). I guess it's a poor choice of words, but still...What? I mean, I guess it makes sense if he wasn't happy about damage to his credibliity, but the fact that Sadaam or the insurrgents were not going to use WMDs against our troops in Iraq would make me pretty happy. Weird.
Update (9:21 PM): Bush: "I will win this debate if I make sure to accent every single word that comes out of my mouth. It's sounds forceful. :)"
Update (9:29 PM): Kerry has made only one mistake so far. In the question about Iran specifically, the question was -what are you going to do right now. Kerry kinda turned it into what he would have done if he, instead of Bush, had been President the last 4 years. It's a difficult question -I honestly have no idea what should be do with hostile countries with nuclear arms. But it would've been nice if Kerry could give at least a semblence of an answer on that one besides sanctions (which are kinda already there) and inspections.
Update (9:35 PM): But, then again, Kerry is totally toasting Bush. I honestly thought Bush was going to fuck Charles Gibson up on that last question when he wanted to respond. Holy shit, that was funny, in a tragic sort of way. Bush is starting to go antsy -remember what your guys told you, Bush, be patient, look interested in the debate.
Update (9:50 PM): Bush: "Kerry's a liberal" Uh-oh, I hope you got a bigger can to contain that one, George. I'm a little worried about Kerry's spending proposals, too, given the horrible deficit, but Kerry knows his place in the scheme of his things, and he knows that he has to be uber-practical with the nation's money to keep us afloat. That said, Kerry has fielded the domestic spending questions well, and Bush, well, he's on ineffectual rabid attack mode big time.
Update (9:56 PM): "Look at the camera, John Kerry, and no new taxes for people makeing less that $200,000" What a fucking hokey, and Kerry had trouble at first figureing out which camera to look at. Hah! I love debates!
Update (10:10 PM): No surprise, Bush got totally fucking crushed on the environment. Bush is at least more articulate and stands up straight for this debate. But Kerry is seriously destroying him. I'm way more impressed with Kerry this time around.
Update (10:33 PM): Really quick before closing arguments, I think alot of the questions, abortion, stem cells, etc., are really polar and you'll think whoever agrees with you on the subject won the points. Kerry did give some really astute ideas about nuance, showing he does have a brain.
Update (10:40 PM): Well, what can I say. The closing arguments were stump speeches, but this was a fantastic debate. Really, I kid you not. You know this too if you're watching the debates. "Too early to call." I can't say that's true. Kerry trounced Bush on this. There will be more Bush spin this time, but there's no doubt in my mind. While Bush still feels kid-like, Kerry just keeps looking better and better. I am humbled. Honestly. And that's all for tonight. Nap time for me, folks.
-duckwing, at 8:32 PM
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Wednesday, October 06, 2004
It's All Horseshit -My Post Analysis of the VP Debate, and other "Stumpy" Thoughts
In my last post, my instant reaction was that as far as Edwards vs. Cheney going mono a mono in a deathmatch to decide who'd be the next President was concerned, I believed Cheney won by a hair. I stick by that, but as far as 1.) the importance of the debate is concerned, and 2.) the real heavy prognosis as to if this really matters or will influence this election, I come to a couple of pretty solid conclusions.
1.) As a factor in influencing an election, this debate had to be absolutely and completely useless.
2.) If Kerry has serious momentum coming out of the debate last week, while acknowledging a slight win for Cheney, I cannot lend creedance for even a brief hair of a second that this debate put a damper on that. If this turns out to be the case, and I won't believe it to be the case unless a poll comes out tomorrow showing Bush/Cheney 30 points ahead, and even then I won't believe it because the polls are going crazy and inconsistant on their samples of Democrats and Republicans, so screw it. Anyway, if somehow they manage to convince me that the "momentum" has, in fact, dampened, I'll gladly hang up my fedora hat and leave the realm of speculative political blogging forever.
3.) Because I'm a gangster, and even gangsters know when to lay low when the deal is done and the chips are down.
But, y'know what, damn it feels good to be a gangster, so I'll stay in. Never fold, son. That's what they always said to me, even when as a young man they convinced me to double up my initial bet on the Patriots during the half-time on Super Bowl XX. And even though just the idea of beating the spread was already physically impossible, I went ahead and doubled my bet. And I lost. Big time. And though they cut my hands off for not paying them the 25 thousand dollars I owed them -in a way, as I type these words out with the stumps of my almost useless wrists , still, the laws of probability guarentee that given 50-50 odds, I will eventually pick a winner here. Because I'm a gangsta, and I never fold...
My hand shows that while Cheney won the initial debate, many of his most powerful points were awfully disingenuous. I wont go there and call them lies, because I'm afraid. Of the Lidless Eye that never blinks -and the fact that even John Ashcroft already knows where I live.
I'm going to stop right here. I figure that Kerry wins the rest of the debates, which surely isn't a gamble, but also -I'm going to guess that there will be a "decisive Reagan" moment for Kerry that pundits and newcasters will come away with in Presidential Debate reviews and say -"this is the moment where it was all over for George Bush."
The strange thing, in super future-o-vision, and from my perspective, is that even a crushing in the debates just might not be enough. And when I say that, I mean you should take that as a bit of a joke.
-duckwing, at 11:51 PM
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Tuesday, October 05, 2004
Vice Presidential Debate: a Live-Blogger's Account
I'm starting a bit late tonight, partly because I just got finished watching Kill Bill Vol. 2, and also because I'm starting to lose the interest in the pre-spin that goes on in these things, particularly on Hardball. One thing the Election Committee might think of is moving these debates earlier in the election year, just so the pressure's off a bit, and they can still get their points across.
Anyway, I ruminated a bit on VP Debates in my previous post, as before, I'll Update when given the notion.
Cheers!
Update (8:25 PM): Switched over to FoxNews for a minute. Holy cow pre-debate stuff is boring. Anyway, the reason why this page takes too long to load is because of a unresolved problem with Blogrolling. That shit takes forever, I know, but I probably won't get around to tweaking it until this weekend. Kudos to you, though, good reader for being patient and allowing the page to load. Really, you guys are fantastic. Super, in fact. Keep it up, because there's more to come.
Update (9:10 PM): Edwards kinda skids out a bit to begin with on his response to Cheney's question. It's the predicate of Iraq to Cheney's subject, and thus Edwards ignores the subject. Was Iraq a threat. But it does serve Edwards in a way in that it leads it into the Democrats main turf and the problems with the war in Iraq and calls on Cheney to defend himself. Not too bad.
Update (9:15 PM): What the hell are they writing? Maybe it's just the debate layout (sitting down at a big desk), but it seems weird. Scribble, scribble. Is this a debate, or an 60 minute written test?
Update (9:19 PM): Edwards totally passes the "global test." Trust, understanding. "They need to know that the credibility of the United States is always good." Fantastic.
Update (9:29 PM): Edwards is going a bit on the defensive now. But sometimes the best offense is a good defense. Or something. He's got to hit harder now, because, while Cheney's holding his own here, I certainly haven't seen a real punch on his side yet. Unless he "wolfs out" tonight. Then, my friend, all bets are off.
Update (9:44 PM): Edwards is getting a bit flustered, stammering a bit. And Cheney debates the moderator a bit, "It's take longer 30 seconds," "Well that's all you got." It's a question of confidence, and Edwards needs to get back on track a bit and just reassume for himself that Cheney is a pushover. He is a good speaker naturally, he just seems, for some reason, to be intimidated by him. And well he should, damn it, because who knows what evil wells in that foul demon.
Update (9:49 PM): Domestic issues, yay! Foreign policy is of course Cheney's game. Edwards has apparently not shown that he can quite go toe to toe with Cheney quite like Kerry can with Bush. Edwards definitely is Edwards' game, and he should be stellar. If Edwards isn't, consider Cheney da winnar.
Update (10:08 PM): I've gotta say, as a card-carrying liberal, that Cheney is holding his own here. Given most of the last 20 minutes has been a debate on gay marriage, an issue which has a sort of soft spot for Cheney's otherwise severe conservative politics. He almost comes off more compassionate in this case than Edwards, who kept brow-beating the "just in case you guys know, I'll repeat it for the third time, marriage is the union between a man and a woman." He scores points when he states that legally no state ever has to recognize a marriage legalized in another state.
Update (10:15 PM): The AIDS funding is one thing which surprised me during the Bush administration, and I credit them for doing what they've done to fund an AIDS program abroad and raise awarness for it in the States as a critical issue. I'm glad that Edwards wants to give it more funding, but other than that, this is one of those things that is just not controversial.
Update (10:27 PM): The problem with John Edwards is that tonight he is presenting himself as a follower, and not that it's a problem because in the sense he's supporting and encouraging Kerry's leadership ability by doing this, but he's also allowed Dick Cheney to control the debate. In my eyes, Cheney appears almost ironically sympathetic in debate mode. When asked who he is, he goes into a brief biography and puts himself into Edwards' shoes. This is exactly what happened with Lieberman. Cheney's main goal has been to take Edwards out of attack dog mode, and he has succeeded.
Update (10:43 PM): This wasn't really an issue orientated debate. A lot of the questions were really open-ended, and it seems like Edwards really couldn't figure in where to stick in his big talking points, which he surely was planning on doing a lot during this debate. Cheney, on the other hand, is quite confortable with open ended questions. No problem with that, obviously Cheney is a very good debater and a smart guy. If it weren't for the past four years, I'd call him respectable. Well, it's all on Kerry's shoulders now. I'd like to point out that, there's nothing Edwards did that makes him being 2nd in line for the Presidency out of the question. Really, Edwards debated fairly well, and there's no reason to figure he'd be out of his league. Cheney wins, but it's not a huge win, and I think really it just whetts our appetite for Friday Night.
-duckwing, at 8:01 PM
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Monday, October 04, 2004
Just a Whole Hell of a Bunch of Random Thoughts
Not to knock blogging too much, I mean, y'know, that's like what I do! But still, if this doesn't capture what political blogging during a Presidential Election is like, I don't know what else does.
You know you're close to wrapping up an election year when both sides start debating stuff like this. That's all I have to say about it, I'm just going to link, and not comment on the specifics because I certainly don't really want to contribute to this debate (although at this point, even LGF has laid down the gauntlet, so I can't imagine it blowing up on the news). I'm not a huge Drudge reader, honestly. I probably glance at his front page five or six times a year, and although I know a ton of people think he's a partisan hack, I never really quite got that impression until this week, and I've got to say that "partisan hack" is just too tidy a phrase for his presidential election coverage. He's whacked.
Anyway, check out this neat Hollies site. It offers their first six albums to listen to, while you're surfing or writing or whatever. Well, I'm a huge early Hollies fan, so that's good for me at least.
I'll be live blogging again for the vice presidential debates. Out of all the debates during the election years of the past, I like the Vice Presidential ones. I missed the Lieberman/Cheney one in 2000, but from what I've heard, it was an anomaly. Al Gore, despite the wrap he got against Bush in the 2000 Presidential debates, mopped the floor with Dan Quayle in 1992. By and large, the craziest debate I've ever seen -and I still vaguely remember it. It was mean. Mean is good in politics -while for the most part it does pay to pull some punches in Presidential Debates, I get the feeling that most die-hard Vice Presidential Debate fans expect a bloodbath. I'm a Vice Presidential Debate fan.
Still, Cheney's got me worried. He's kind of a smile while stabing you in the back kinda persona, which is what doomed Lieberman in 2000. Lieberman didn't even know what hit him. Edwards, of course, isn't going to fall for trap, but he's got to learn how to parry. The no holds barred shit kicking up in your face fighting stance that Edwards prefers is something that Cheney has learned to parry easily himself with his air of conversational overtures during his interviews and that infuriating "Who, me?" stance that never lets up. Keep your chin up, John, give him some quick jabs with a smile on your face when his guard is down, and maybe keep some tranquilizer darts in your breast pocket just in case your adversary does decide to "wolf out" on you and attempts to rip your throat out live on television. You know, just to be safe -be prepared.
You never know.
-duckwing, at 10:16 PM
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Friday, October 01, 2004
Ballad of a Thin Man -Post Debate Analysis...
It's okay, you know. If you don't get the joke in the headline tonight, just rest assure yourself that you're totally not hip enough for politics. The truth is, I know exactly what's happening here, and I'm certainly not afraid to say it.
Still, I'm not sure quite what to make of the fact that all of the newspaper vending boxes in downtown Washington, DC have apperently vanished overnight, a couple of days ago. I know we have the World Bank/IMF protestors going nuts this weekend, which explains the closed streets and 6 cops on every corner and 2 police cars escorting every empty shuttle in the area. I mean, World Bank is having a meeting this weekend. But removing every vending box downtown? I don't subscribe to the Post, but I like to pick up the paper everyday and read it on the train during my commute.
Now I have to fucking walk to fucking Dupont Circle to find a vending machine, or I can just wait in line 15 minutes at any convienient CVS ready to pick up my daily paper. Or I could just subcribe, which sucks because I don't always want to read the paper every single day. I hope this is temporary. Strangely enough, this doesn't affect the suburban Metro stations, which have their newspaper vendors fully accessible and their newspapers ready to read.
So, regarding the debates...well, y'know I'll take positive press wherever I can get it. They say Kerry was super Presidential, and super articulate, and y'know, while you still wouldn't be caught dead with him sharing a drink at the bar, at least he wouldn't get all brash and all up in your face if you ended up pissing him off at the end of the night. Beyond Bush's stuttering and stammering, I missed a lot of the non-verbal cues other pudies have picked up on, like the rolling eyes and constant smirking (fuck you MSNBC), and I guess it might've hurt my impression of him if I watched the debates on another channel. But I have to say that politics really is a game of expectations. I've long since given up on our President wowing me in public appearences, so my bar for what to expect out of Bush is low. If Bush says something even remotely articulate, I'm inclined to be like "Whoa...he said something that wasn't forced or stupid! Cool...." My expectations for Kerry are, unfortunately, also pretty low, but I was expecting him to break-out, and while he did, kinda, I was still expecting something more.
Still, it was a great debate. I learned a shitload about spin and the media. The biggest thing is -it really doesn't matter who wins or loses this election, as long as it can be spun into something vaguely interesting.
Have a extremely cool and groovy weekend, folks.
-duckwing, at 11:09 PM
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