My views on politics, life, death, the army, and other things too miscellaneous to mention here. This is a personal blog. This blog is 100% factual.
Bill Duckwing
Poet, Author, Journalist
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"There are some myths and untruths surrounding the role God plays in our daily lives. To say that religion and politics do not mix, is certainly a myth, unless you ask a liberal. Anything that affects a Christian (and voting is one of them) — enters into the religious realm. Trying to separate the two is like trying to separate oil from a glass of water, it's impossible to do. "
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Monday, November 06, 2006
Predictions on the Midterms
House: I'm not going to bother with calling any individual races, but of course I'll go with the convention wisdom and predict that the house will end up under Democratic control. My breakdown: 223 (D), 212 (R).
The Senate, I'll assume that the seats polled this year as "Safe" seats are in fact "Safe" and just pick the winners for the races most people have put in the "tossup" category:
Rhode Island
Chafee (R) - 51%
Whitehouse (D) - 49%
The Islanders really like Chafee, and don't hate Bush quite enough to make Chafee pay for it.
Tennessee
Corker (R) - 54%
Ford (D) - 46%
Ford was a very good candidate, and I keep wanting to place this in the "win" category, but if you're consistenly trailing in the polls by a 8-12 point margin -it's kinda like being a Republican and believing Santorum could conceivably eck out a win in Pennslyvania.
Virginia
Webb (D) - 52%
Allen (R) - 48%
Virgina's politics have changed. I figure if Tim Kaine can win a governorship in Virginia against Jerry Kilgore, a guy that had a less than checkered past, then Webb should certainly beat George Allen, a guy who has done everything possible to destroy his canidacy. My only cavet is that Allen was an insanely popular politician in Virginia for the last decade or so, especially when he was Governor of Virginia. When Webb won the the primary the initial polls showed Allen ahead about 20 points. Webb will still squeak by here.
Montana
Tester (D) - 50.5%
Burns (R) - 49.5%
Okay, this is me totally ignoring the momentum shift of the past week and just going with my gut. Truth is, I don't see how a man like Conrad Burns could possibly beat a guy like Jon Tester. It breaks the laws of humanity, or something. Still, this race probably won't be decided until Wednesday.
Missouri
Talent (R) - 53%
McCaskill (D) - 47%
I know the Democrats have improved the GOTV machinery in this state in particular, but I don't think it's going to be a straight Democratic sweep with the tossups, and I think Missouri is still a solid Republican state and most of them are probably going to okay with keeping Talent in charge.
Ohio
Brown (D) - 56%
DeWine (R) - 44%
Um...DeWine certainly doesn't inspire Republicans to vote, thats for sure. Ohio, a huge blue collar state, is obviously really ticked off at the 'Pubs this year, and the burning effigies of Republican House members displayed on so many grass lawns all over the state really drive home the... well at least that's what the polls seem to show at this point. I don't have a reason not to believe Brown will win this when every poll has Brown over DeWine by at least 8 points.
Pennslyvania
Casey (D) - 59%
Santorum (R) - 41%
I'm approaching almost a 20 point gap here. There is no way, short of massive Diebold fraud taking place in Pennslyvania, that Santorum can win re-election.
New Jersey
Menendez (D) - 53%
Kean (R) - 47%
This race will tighten up, with Kean probably winning a majority of the undecideds tomorrow. But Menedez has polled consistantly ahead of Kean through the campaign, and I don't think New Jersey Republicans have the machinery in place to pull this off for Kean. I think if the Republicans had any idea this race could've been competitive a year ago the race would've been a lot more interesting.
Maryland
Steele (R) - 51%
Cardin (D) - 49%
Honestly, I think Steele just ran a better campaign here -and he would probably beat Cardin overwhelmingly if this wasn't also a referendum on Iraq and G.W. Bush. Maryland is still a Democratic stonghold, but I think the issue here is kind of the same problem with why Dem voters in RI are uncomfortable with ousting Chafee. I think that "blue states" generally tend to vote far more meritocratically, rather than toe a party line. While I do think the Bush thing tempers that sentiment down quite a bit, I still think Steele is going to win a narrow victory here. (I also think that Republican Erlich is going to be re-elected as Governor here, don't aske me why).
Arizona
Kyl (R) - 51%
Penderson (D) - 49%
There has been a surge in the past week for Penderson, enough that many strategists are thinking this could be the surprise swing state of the election. While I agree that the momentum shift is astonishing here, I don't really see any reason for the shift, and wouldn't be surprised if the latest polls are outliers. I do think there is some Dem mo' going on here, but I think it's probably too sudden and too much of a shock for Democrats to capitalize here.
FINAL SENATE TALLY: 52 (R) - 46 (D) - 2 (I -Lieberman and Sanders, who will vote with the Dems)
Gov'ner Tally - 27 (D), 23 (R)
What'cha think?
Update: Weirdly enough, Bob Novak has the exact same picks for the Senate races that I have here. He even throws in the oddly similar comparison of Ohio voters being a sort of GOP lynch mob this time around. I'll just chalk it up to Bob's optimism and my extreme pessimism, and hope that my picks are tainted by misgivings caused by the 2004 elections.
Update Numero 2: Cardin projected to win over Steele -with 0% of the votes counted so far. My first bad pick (sniff...no, not really).
Update 3: O'Malley beats Ehrlich for Governor of Maryland, and Whitehouse is projected to beat Chafee for the RI Senate seat -fuck (no, not really...) Chafee, you should've turned blue, man. Our loss.
-duckwing, at 9:36 PM
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